In previous blogs I have chartered Maine's dramatic change from an in-migration state to an out-migration state--see here.  Unfortunately, it has been impossible to do the same sort of analysis for businesses . . . until now.

A new website called www.youreconomy.org now tracks business establishments by state, county and metro area.  Anecdotely, Mainers have long suspected that businesses were leaving the state.  According to the website, between 1993 and 2007, Maine has seen a net job loss of 1.75 percent due to businesses relocating out of the state.

It is important to note this only measures the job loss in the year of out-migration.  It does not include any new jobs that were subsequently created by the business in its new resident state.  Any such new jobs could also be considered a loss to Maine's economy.

The website is powered by a new proprietary dataset called the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) database.  The website states:

"The NETS (National Establishment Time Series) database used to generate YourEconomy statistics is large, with 36.5 million records for U.S. establishments that existed any time between 1990 and the present. Of these 36.5 million establishments, 17 million are still active and report over 500 million employees."

"Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) delivers new data on U.S. establishments to Walls & Associates at the beginning of each year. The data includes the records from the D&B DMI (Duns Market Identifier) database and several other smaller ones. Walls & Associates checks the data for problems, fixes any that are found, goes back through the entire data set changing all necessary records, and then delivers the updated and improved data set to subscribers in the form of the NETS database."

"NETS has many features that set it apart from other data sets. Among these are more small businesses, more industry classifications, historical accuracy, establishment verification vs. business sampling, business relocation accuracy, and full and quick longitudinal employment information access."

Stay tuned to this website/blog for more from this exciting new dataset . . .

What is Maine's reputation as a result of the legislature's continuing refusal to enact charter school legislation in the face of demands from Washington that it do so?

The new issue of Education Week, the nation's "paper of record" on education issues, features an article on how the Obama administration's push for charters seems to be resulting in real reforms -- in states other than Maine.

The paper observes that Illinois recently raised its charter cap in response to pressure from the Obama team, and that Boston Mayor Tom Menino, who "has been skeptical of charters for years, suddenly shifted positions last week to say he favors turning the city's low-performing schools into charters."

Then there is this paragraph:

And in Maine, where charter advocates have failed for years to enact a law to allow the schools to operate, lawmakers last week defeated a measure to allow the first 10 charters to open. That action took place on the same day that Mr. Duncan, in a press release and a conference call with reporters, singled the state out as one that would likely be at the back of the line for Race to the Top funds.

Ugh. What a disgrace.

Even here in Maine, the Kennebec Journal excoriated lawmakers for their failure to enact charters:

Lawmakers weren't interested in innovation when it came to charter schools, however, and continued their stubborn refusal to allow this form of public school to operate in the state. It was a classic case of ignoring their real constituents and bowing to interest groups -- teacher unions and principals -- who feel threatened by the nontraditional institutions.

So, in an era in which a new president calls for innovation and change, Maine continues to resist such moves. It will be interesting to see Washington's reaction, but my guess is it will not be good.

And why should it?

On the same day that the Maine Senate killed the charter school bill for good, the U.S. Department of Education identified Maine, by name, as one of the states that "will jeopardize their applications under the Race to the Top Fund" as a consequence of its failure to support charter schools.

The Department's press release, which can be found here, states that "a network of innovative and high-achieving charter schools can be an important part of a state's school reform effort. However, charter schools are facing significant obstacles to expansion in too many states.

For example:

• Ten states do not have laws allowing public charter schools;
• In the 40 states with charters, 26 put artificial caps on the number of public charter schools and President Obama has called on states to lift these caps and other barriers to having a healthy network of charter schools throughout the country;
• In Maine, the state legislature is debating a bill that would establish a pilot program for its first 10 charter schools;
• Tennessee has not moved on a bill to lift enrollment restrictions on charter schools; and
• In Indiana, the legislature is considering a moratorium on new charter schools."

"These actions," the Department concludes, "are restricting reforms, limiting choices for parents and students, and denying children access to new high-quality instruction." 

Despite this shot over the bow from Washington, the Maine Senate voted on Monday to "adhere" to its vote, last Thursday, against charter schools. The roll-call vote is available here, a vote of yes is a vote against charter schools. The bill is now dead.

So, Maine, with its motto of Dirigo (I Lead), leads the nation yet again, this time for being one of the last states in the nation that continues to outlaw charter schools, in defiance of calls from Washington to do otherwise. As a consequence, Maine will almost certainly find itself out of the running as Secretary of Education Arne Duncan looks for states in which to invest the almost $5 billion in innovation funding he has at his disposal.

Mainers can't be bought, Mr. Secretary!  Nor will they be cowed by harsh words from Washington!

We'll show you! We will continue to maintain the status quo, continue to resist calls to innovate, continue to spend more per-pupil than most states to buy mediocre results, continue to trail the nation in student achievement and degree attainment, and continue to watch, unmoved, as a steady stream of young families leaves our state for opportunities elsewhere.

Take that, Washington!

This article from the Boston Herald today provides an interesting look at the issue of cross-border shopping in the Northeast . . . but, of course, with a focus on the issue between Massachusetts and New Hampshire.

Remarkably, Massachusetts wants to increase their sales by 25 percent to 6.25 percent from 5 percent.  With a sales tax rate that high, even Maine can now get on the positive side of cross-border shopping from increased purchases by Massachusetts tourists--assuming they don't do all of their shopping in New Hampshire before they get here or on their way home.

Miracle of miracles, the charter school bill, all but dead after a loss in the Senate, won passage in the House yesterday by a narrow vote. The bill will likely be taken up by the Senate on Monday.

Whose votes will carry a great deal of weight in the Senate on Monday? A good place to start would be with the five Senate Republicans who did not support the bill Thursday:

Senator Davis, from Falmouth

Senator McCormick, from West Gardiner

Senator Raye, from Perry

Senator Sherman, from Houlton
 
Senator Trahan, from Waldoboro

If those five vote for the bill and the other Senate votes remain the same, the bill will prevail in the Senate and, if the vote holds in the House,  the charter school bill will head to the governor, who supports it.

Supporters of charter schools need to be active this weekend. Word on the street is that the Maine Education Association has already sent some kind of action alert to its membership, encouraging them to contact legislators in order to urge a vote against the charter school bill.

Charter school supporters should make their voices heard as well, as the decisive Senate vote on the bill could come as soon as Monday.

Visit the legislature's website to find out how to contact legislators, including the five listed above, and tell them we need charter schools in Maine.

Whether Maine will have charter schools or not will be decided within the next couple of days, and by a handful of votes. EVERY VOTE MATTERS!

The most recent in a long series of bills put forward over the years to enact charter schools in Maine has failed passage in the Senate this afternoon by a vote of 22 to 13. I anticipated a week or two back that, with only one Democrat supporting the measure and a number of Republicans opposed, the bill stood no chance.

As it turns out, three Democrats supported the charter school bill, (Damon, Brannigan, and Bowman) which would have been enough to save it had the five Republicans who voted against the bill (Davis, McCormick, Raye, Sherman, and Trahan) supported it.

Just as they did three years ago, the Republicans have prevented Maine from enacting charter schools.

Let me say that again. We don't have charter schools today because of Republicans in the legislature three years ago, and Republicans killed yet another charter school bill this afternoon.

Amazing.

What is there to say that has not been said already? This is a sad day for Maine's kids, and a sad day as well, it is important to say, for the dedicated and hard working teachers and administrators across Maine who are trapped in a dysfunctional system which stifles creativity, rewards mediocrity, and tolerates failure. Our schools are not doing fine, Sen. Simpson, they are manifestly failing the one out of every four students that drops out of school before receiving a diploma, and they are ill-serving thousands more.

A slender reed of hope remains that mounting pressure form Washington will compel action on this issue at a later date, but until then the work of educating policymakers (Republicans especially, it seems) and the public as to why our schools need to be far better than they are and of rallying Maine people to cause of meaningful reform continues...

With the charter school bill on its way to the state Senate any day now, the Kennebec journal has jumped into the fray with shotgun blast of an editorial, aimed right at the charter-opposing educational establishment and their dutiful water-carriers in the legislature:

Supporters of the status quo are on the verge of winning the battle against innovation at the Statehouse, where the umpteenth attempt to bring charter schools to Maine is just about dead.

The bill in question, sponsored by Democratic Sen. Dennis Damon of Trenton, would have finally allowed charter schools to be opened in the state. Maine is one of only 10 states that still bar the independently run public schools.

But such schools are apparently a threat to life as it should be. That's at least what a range of interests representing -- tellingly -- superintendents, teachers, principals and school boards told lawmakers in public hearings and work sessions. Charter schools, in their view, will siphon money from public schools, drain away good students and the state funding that goes with them, they're elitist and their establishment will lead to the closing of rural schools.

Despite testimony from teachers, educational specialists and parents endorsing charter schools, lawmakers were cowed into submission by the powerful institutional interests and voted down the bill in committee."

Cowed into submission is precisely the phrase for it.

Anyone interested in why Maine trails the nation in meaningful educational innovation - why we are one of the few states without charter schools, why we continue to argue about high school diploma requirements years after most states have settled the issue, why we stumble from one assessment system to another - need only spend a few hours in the Education Committee room.

Don't bother studying the legislators, look rather at who is sitting in the audience. No matter the bill being debated or the subject being discussed, the "three musketeers" of the education status quo will always be there: Sandy MacArthur from the Maine School Management Association, representing the school boards and school superintendents, Steve Crouse from the Maine Education Association, representing the teachers' union, and Dick Durost from the Maine Principals' Association.

Together they form a solid wall of opposition to any kind of innovation that threatens their unrelenting grip on Maine's schools.  Against school choice. Against charter schools. Against new pay models for teachers and administrators. Against alternative teacher certification programs. Against the school budget validation process. Against tough standards and greater accountability.

From the KJ:

We challenge the Legislature: If you don't have the courage to stand up and beat off the prophets of doom who are so scared of charter schools, then just reject the bill.

Alternatively, do the right thing and vote for a robust experiment in charter schools, as the bill originally proposed. Maine's children deserve the best teaching we can give them and, lest we forget, that's why we have schools -- for our children.

For the forces of the status quo, though, it isn't about the children. It never is. It is about the adults in the system and what is best for them.

Not a single parent spoke out against public charter schools at the public hearing. Not one. Rumor has it that new polling data, soon to be released, shows that 70% of Mainers support public charter schools. Charter schools are in place already in 40 other states, and the Obama Administration is calling on states to create even more charter schools.

Yet, despite all this, the charter school bill is likely headed to defeat.

The KJ knows why, and now, so do you.

The result of two divisive work sessions on the charter school bill was a 8-5 divided report against the bill, which now goes to the Senate, and then on to the House.  With both of the Senate Democrats on the Education Committee against the bill, it is safe to say that it will be a miracle if the bill even makes it out of the Senate, much less passes the House.

Some history may be in order.

In 2006, the 122nd Legislature debated, and ultimately defeated, a bill to authorize charter schools, LD 1640. Only one Democrat who was in the Senate during the 122nd legislature and is still there today, Dennis Damon, voted in favor of LD 1640.

Current Senate Democrats Lawrence Bliss, Joe Brannigan, Margaret Craven, Stan Gerzofsky, Troy Jackson, Lisa Marrache and Deborah Simpson were all in the House in 2006 and all voted against LD 1640, as did then-House Republicans Gerry Davis, Earle McCormick, Roger Sherman, and David Trahan, all of whom are also in the Senate today. Senator Kevin Raye, who is now the Senate Republican Leader, voted against LD 1640 as well.

This adds up to 19 of 20 Senate Democrats likely to vote against this year's charter school bill, and 5 of 15 Republicans.  Even if one or two of the Senators who opposed charter schools in the past changes his or her vote, the bill is almost certainly doomed.

So, yet another triumph for the status quo. Today's Portland Press Herald hits it right on the head:

So far, opponents [of charter schools] continue to offer the same stale complaints. The most common is the claim that charter schools divert money from public schools. But charter schools are public schools. They are created by contract with a school district or an institution of higher learning and use the same mix of state and local tax dollars on a per-pupil basis to teach the same kids.

It is reasonable to expect, especially at first, that charter schools will start small and attract relatively few students, which should not have major impact on the sending school's budget. But, as Rep. Alan Casavant, D-Biddeford, pointed out this week, if large numbers of students are fleeing a local school, "that would tell you that something's wrong" with the school and not with the charter school option.

Rep. Casavant, by the way, should be regarded as a hero to the cause of charter schools. He worked extraordinarily hard, even after the bill had been voted on by the committee, to get some kind of charter school bill passed. He is to be commended for his efforts.

"Opponents of charter schools," the paper concludes, "tend to be those who have a vested interest in the system the way it is - teachers' unions and superintendents."  This is unquestionably true.  Not a single parent spoke out against the charter school bill.  Its only opponents were, as I described earlier, the forces of the status quo - the various associations representing the teachers, principals, superintendents, and school boards.

They have, it would appear, triumphed once again, meaning Maine will likely remain one of only 10 states in the nation that will not even experiment, even in a limited and highly regulated way, with an approach to education reform that has transformed schools across the nation.

As one disheartened charter supporter told be yesterday, "Dirigo means what again? 'I Lead?'"

Not this time.

Will Maine join the 40 other states which allow the creation of public charter schools?

What happens at today's work session on LD 1438 will tell us a great deal about the answer to that question. A strong "Ought to Pass" recommendation from the Education Committee would virtually guarantee passage of the bill, while a divided report, especially one divided along party lines, would likely mean prolonged battles over the bill in the House and Senate.

Based on last week's debate over the bill, a strict "party line" split on the bill is unlikely.  Rep. Alan Casavant, a Democrat from Biddeford, made a motion to pass the bill last week, so at least one Democrat from the committee is likely to join the Republicans and vote to support the bill. 

That the bill is sponsored by high-ranking Democrats such as Sen. Dennis Damon (D-Hancock) and Rep. John Piotti (D-Unity), the House Majority Leader, will likely mean additonal support from Democrats.

And why not?

A new study out this week shows support for charter schools slowly shifting from the political right to the political left.  The study, conducted by researchers from Brown University and the University of Chicago, found that the more respondents knew about how charter schools actually operate, the more likely liberals were to support them, with conservative support  becoming less likely:

"Forty-nine percent of conservatives and 36 percent of liberals who were not provided information supported charter schools. But when they were told that charter schools are tuition-free and secular, support dropped among conservatives by 6 percentage points and increased among liberals by 11 percentage points. Indeed, when provided information, liberals were 4 percent more likely to support charter schools than were conservatives." the authors reported.

"These findings," they added, "portend a major shift in the political landscape of school choice. Traditionally, charter schools have been viewed as falling primarily within the province of conservatives' preferred education reforms. Yet our results show that basic facts about the design of charter schools appeal more to liberals. It is quite possible, then, that as the public becomes more informed about these public schools, core support for them may shift from the right to the left of the political spectrum. Indeed, the recent election of a liberal (and presumably well-informed) president who professes strong support of charter schools may be a sign that this process is under way." 

Will this shift in thinking carry itself all the way to the Education Committee, which is dominated by liberals?

We'll find out this afternoon. The work session on the charter school bill is at 1pm today. The audio broadcast of the committee's deliberations can be heard here.

Last week the U.S. Census Bureau released new "age, race and sex" demographic data for all 50 states for the year ending July 1, 2008.  Unfortunately, the data brings more bad news for Maine.  Between July 1, 2007 and July 1, 2008, Maine lost another 4,543 people under the age of 18--bringing the cumulative loss since July 1, 2000 to 26,346 (click "continue reading" to view table).

Perhaps more disturbingly, between July 1, 2007 and July 1, 2008, Maine lost another 5,843 people 25 to 44 years old--bringing the cumulative loss since July 1, 2000 to 37,900.  This is strong, indirect evidence that Maine is losing its families to out-migration.

On the flip side, between July 1, 2007 and July 1, 2008, Maine gained another 6,405 people 45 to 64 years old--bringing the cumulative gain since July 1, 2000 to 79,944.  This is strong, indirect evidence that Maine has seen in-migration from empty-nesters.

Clearly this imbalance in Maine's age structure cannot continue without serious repercussions to Maine's economy.  Maine is losing its most productive population (25 to 44) and its next generation (under 18) while a growing proportion of the population rapidly nears retirement (45 to 64).  This begs the question--will there be enough productive people left in Maine to support the retired in 5, 10 or 15 years hence?